Enter your mobile number or email address below and we'll send you a link to download the free Kindle App. Then you can start reading Kindle books on your smartphone, tablet, or computer - no Kindle device required.

  • Apple
  • Android
  • Windows Phone
  • Android

To get the free app, enter your email address or mobile phone number.

Qty:1
  • List Price: $33.95
  • Save: $4.70 (14%)
In Stock.
Ships from and sold by Amazon.com. Gift-wrap available.
Expert Political Judgment... has been added to your Cart
Want it tomorrow, March 1? Order within and choose One-Day Shipping at checkout. Details

Ship to:
To see addresses, please
or
Please enter a valid US zip code.
or
Condition: Used: Good
Comment: PLEASE READ FULL DESCRIPTION -USED GOOD- This book has been read and may show wear to the cover and or pages. There may be some dog-eared pages. In some cases the internal pages may contain highlighting/margin notes/underlining or any combination of these markings. The binding will be secure in all cases. This is a good reading and studying copy and has been verified that all pages are legible and intact. If the book contained a CD it is not guaranteed to still be included. All items are packed and shipped from the Amazon warehouse.

Sorry, there was a problem.

There was an error retrieving your Wish Lists. Please try again.

Sorry, there was a problem.

List unavailable.
Sell yours for a Gift Card
We'll buy it for $5.24
Learn More
Trade in now
Have one to sell? Sell on Amazon
Flip to back Flip to front
Listen Playing... Paused   You're listening to a sample of the Audible audio edition.
Learn more
See all 2 images

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Paperback – August 20, 2006

4.4 out of 5 stars 36 customer reviews

See all 5 formats and editions Hide other formats and editions
Price
New from Used from
Kindle
"Please retry"
Paperback
"Please retry"
$29.25
$17.21 $14.57
$29.25 FREE Shipping. In Stock. Ships from and sold by Amazon.com. Gift-wrap available.

Frequently Bought Together

  • Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
  • +
  • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
  • +
  • Thinking, Fast and Slow
Total price: $57.74
Buy the selected items together

Special Offers and Product Promotions


NO_CONTENT_IN_FEATURE


Product Details

  • Paperback: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press; New Ed edition (August 20, 2006)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0691128715
  • ISBN-13: 978-0691128719
  • Product Dimensions: 6.1 x 0.9 x 9.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (36 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #213,534 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Tetlock shows conclusively two key points: First, the best experts in making political estimates and forecasts are no more accurate than fairly simple mathematical models of their estimative processes. This is yet another confirmation of what Robyn Dawes termed "the robust beauty of simple linear models." The inability of human experts to out-perform models based on their expertise has been demonstrated in over one hundred fields of expertise over fifty years of research; one of the most robust findings in social science. Political experts are no exception.

Secondly, Tetlock demonstrates that experts who know something about a number of related topics (foxes) predict better than experts who know a great deal about one thing (hedgehogs). Generalist knowledge adds to accuracy.

Tetlock's survey of this research is clear, crisp, and compelling. His work has direct application to world affairs. For example he is presenting his findings to a conference of Intelligence Community leaders next week (Jan 2007) at the invitation of the Director of National Intelligence.

"Expert Political Judgment" is recommended to anyone who depends on political experts, which is pretty much all of us. Tetlock helps the non-experts to know more about what the experts know, how they know it, and how much good it does them in making predictions.
2 Comments 50 of 53 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
Format: Paperback
This book is a rather dry description of good research into the forecasting abilities of people who are regarded as political experts. It is unusually fair and unbiased.

His most important finding about what distinguishes the worst from the not-so-bad is that those on the hedgehog end of Isaiah Berlin's spectrum (who derive predictions from a single grand vision) are wrong more often than those near the fox end (who use many different ideas). He convinced me that that finding is approximately right, but leaves me with questions.

Does the correlation persist at the fox end of the spectrum, or do the most fox-like subjects show some diminished accuracy?

How do we reconcile his evidence that humans with more complex thinking do better than simplistic humans, but simple autoregressive models beat all humans? That seems to suggest there's something imperfect in using the hedgehog-fox spectrum. Maybe a better spectrum would use evidence on how much data influences their worldviews?

Another interesting finding is that optimists tend to be more accurate than pessimists. I'd like to know how broad a set of domains this applies to. It certainly doesn't apply to predicting software shipment dates. Does it apply mainly to domains where experts depend on media attention?

To what extent can different ways of selecting experts change the results? Tetlock probably chose subjects that resemble those who most people regard as experts, but there must be ways of selecting experts which produce better forecasts. It seems unlikely they can match <a href="[...]">prediction markets</a>, but there are situations where we probably can't avoid relying on experts.
Read more ›
Comment 35 of 38 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
Format: Hardcover
As both a consultant and an investment manager I have spent a lot of years studying decision theory. One limitation in a lot of the work I encountered was its heavy reliance on lab studies using students. You were never quite sure if the conclusions applied in the "real world." This outstanding book puts that concern to rest. It is by far the richest body of evidence I have encountered on decision making in real world situations. Anybody interested in decision making and decision theory will profit from reading it.
Comment 17 of 17 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse
Format: Paperback
Tetlock takes on an issue that transcends the social sciences. When should we trust experts (he focuses on political experts but I think (and I think he would agree) that his findings have broader applicability)? His carefully constructed tests indicate that on average experts are little better than the lay public and inferior to simple statistical models. Within the expert fields "foxes" are better than "hedgehogs." Generalists and flexible thinkers are better than ideologues and narrow specialists.

I tend to like this book in part because it reaffirms my prior beliefs. And it does so in a very careful way. Tetlock bends over backwards to test his own conclusions. A particularly insightful conclusion is that those who are most likely to get publicity for their predictions are also those who are least likely to be right.

Two mild criticisms. First, the book veers into the highly technical at times and is not really for the lay reader. It was perhaps not intended to be for an audience beyond academia but some of the attention it has gotten may have attracted a broader audience that may have to gloss over wide sections of the book. Second, in his conclusions, Tetlock attempts to broaden his already far-reaching argument to deal with conflicts between relativists and objectivists. This felt tacked on and too cursory to contribute in this area.

But as far as his treatment of experts goes, I wish that everyone could read this and treat them with a more cynical eye.
Comment 5 of 5 people found this helpful. Was this review helpful to you? Yes No Sending feedback...
Thank you for your feedback.
Sorry, we failed to record your vote. Please try again
Report abuse

Most Recent Customer Reviews

Set up an Amazon Giveaway

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Amazon Giveaway allows you to run promotional giveaways in order to create buzz, reward your audience, and attract new followers and customers. Learn more
This item: Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?



Pages with Related Products. See and discover other items: garthoff the great transition, whose justice which rationality, challenge of skepticism